The pending closure of commercial Chinook salmon fishing off the Oregon Coast looks to be a bit of good news for recreational anglers fishing the Rogue River and other coastal rivers.

Because of pending limits on commercial salmon catches off the West Coast, more of those fish are expected to be available to enter rivers to spawn — and be caught by inland sport fishermen.

“More salmon will come back to the Chetco and the Rogue,” predicted Andy Martin, a guide and charter boat captain in Brookings on the Southern Oregon Coast. “More of those will return to spawn.”

State fish biologists in the Rogue Valley agree that the closures likely would increase the number of Chinook salmon returning to the Rogue River.

“It’ll definitely benefit Rogue fall Chinook,” said Pete Samarin, a fish biologist with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife office in Central Point. “The benefit to spring Chinook won’t be fully realized until next year.”

“It’ll translate into more Chinook,” said Dan Van Dyke, ODFW district fish biologist.

Neither biologist ventured a guess as to what the increase in numbers might be.

The National Marine Fisheries Service is expected to close all commercial ocean fishing for Chinook salmon through August along the Oregon Coast for nearly its entire length, from the border with California north to Cape Falcon near the mouth of Columbia River. Other Chinook and coho salmon closures affect the ocean off the California coast.

The closures are meant to benefit Chinook headed for the Klamath and Sacramento rivers in California that have reduced salmon numbers. The closures are intended to maximize the number of salmon that return to rivers to spawn.

Salmon hatch in rivers, live in the ocean and return to spawn. Poor river conditions in a given year can affect future runs returning to spawn.

In the Rogue River, salmon numbers are below average, but not at critical levels, according to Van Dyke, who said drought, barriers to fish passage and warm ocean conditions have contributed to fish declines. Riparian habitat loss and land development have contributed, too.

“Fall and spring wild chinook salmon runs have been below average for the last few years, but above levels that trigger conservation concern,” he wrote in an email. “Coho salmon are federally listed as threatened … but are gradually doing better than in the past.”

The forecast for wild fall Chinook this year is 38,000, compared with 48,979 in 2021 and 17,606 in 2022. The forecast for wild spring Chinook this year is 8,000, compared with 4,633 in 2021 and 8,740 in 2022.

Martin predicted that sport fishermen from California would do the migrating this year — north to Oregon, to fish the ocean recreationally for coho salmon, which are not subject to closure.

Martin expects some of those recreational fishermen to be his customers on charter excursions he runs.

“I’ll probably see an increase in business,” he said. “Ocean anglers will get two-and-a-half months to catch hatchery coho salmon this summer off the Oregon Coast, with the season running June 17 through Aug. 31 out of Brookings.”

The closures off the Oregon Coast apply to commercial and recreational Chinook salmon fishing, but not to recreational coho salmon fishing.

Coho salmon, also known as silver salmon, generally are smaller than Chinook salmon, which are also known as king salmon. The difference could be a 10-pound coho compared with a 20-pound Chinook, according to Martin.

“There’s a big abundance of those,” Martin said, referring to coho salmon from the Columbia River. “On the Oregon Coast, we’ll be able to fish for them as normal.”

He estimated that a couple dozen licensed commercial fishing outfits operate in Curry County, and he said they have diversified from salmon to also take in crab, tuna, rockfish and halibut. Salmon are a prized fish, noted for their taste, fight and monetary value.

The Chinook salmon closure has prompted Gov. Tina Kotek and Oregon’s congressional delegation to request that the U.S. Department of Commerce make an expedited declaration of a federal fishery disaster. In an April 17 letter to the department, the delegation stated that ODFW estimated that the value of Chinook and coho salmon taken commercially off the coast would drop to $420,000 this year, down from a five-year annual average $2.3 million.

“A commercial fishery failure declaration is vital to deliver federal aid that is urgently needed to mitigate these ongoing negative impacts and provide support to economically distressed communities,” the delegation wrote. “The value of salmon to Oregon cannot be overstated. In addition to the economic activity generated by this industry, salmon are an important part of the cultural heritage of Pacific Northwest tribes and are a treasured natural resource across the state.”

Federal assistance could come in the form of grants or loans and could be used for assessing impacts, restoring the fishery and assisting the fishing community. As of Friday, the Commerce Department had not approved the delegation’s request, according to Hank Stern, spokesman for Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, a Democrat.