Rogue Valley Times file photo

Sales of existing homes in urban parts of Jackson County were about half of the number for the rolling quarter of March through May this year when compared to 2022, the latest statistics from the Rogue Valley Association of Realtors show.

Urban area existing home sales for the period totaled 456 versus 798 a year ago. The countywide median price for the rolling quarter was $397,495, down 3.1% from the previous year’s $410,000.

Higher interest rates are a major factor in the slowdown, two veteran brokers told the Rogue Valley Times. But a lack of inventory compared to historical levels is also making things difficult for potential buyers, said Colin Mullane with Full Circle Real Estate and Scott Lewis with John L. Scott.

“People are hanging on to their really low mortgages. That’s what is dragging down some of the sales,” said Lewis. The same motivations still exist for moving and buying, such as wanting to upsize or downsize, school considerations and job changes, and some buyers are responding to those, he said.

“People are tired of waiting, trying to time the rate market. They are just bucking up and dealing with 6% to 7% rates. They just want to move,” said Lewis. He noted the rates are still below the 8.5% average for mortgages over the last 50 years.

“We don’t know how many buyers would be willing (to pay higher rates), because we just don’t have the inventory,” said Mullane. “Sellers are willing to move from 3% to 6%, but also clearly we have buyers who are buying and using loans.”

Sales during the rolling quarter this year were 50% of those in March 2022, then rose to 54% for April and 57% for May. Mullane said last May’s figures were the first that reflected a slowdown in sales due to the rise in interest rates, which had been 3% or lower. Currently borrowers can get interest rates between 6% and 7% depending upon their circumstance and the lender.

Selling prices remained at 96% of listing prices on average for March, April and May. The ratio had been at 99% in May 2022, but then dropped to as low at 92% in January before rebounding.

Some sellers are willing to help make sales happen by reducing prices a bit or assisting with closing costs, said Lewis. While the list-to-sale ratio is down from a year ago, he doesn’t see a major price decline coming.

On May 31 this year, there were 673 listings, up 2% over 659 on the same date last year. There is a 2.9-month supply of housing available compared to two months in May 2022.

The cumulative days on market for properties was 59 for February through May sales. Before that, the number had gone as high as 80 days in January. The cumulative days on market average was down to 22 in May 2022, but then increased with the rise in interest rates, going to 40 in September and 70 in December.

Association statistics are now listing cumulative days on the market, which can account for properties sometimes being taken off the market, then put back on. In previous reporting, days on market was calculated from the first listing date regardless of breaks in status.

The association statistics now list sales happening within each city’s urban growth boundaries. Previously they were using areas that generally reflected city limits, but included nearby properties also. The change was made to ensure transparency in the reports.

For the first time, the statistics also show sales of manufactured homes. Not all of those sales are handled by agents with the association’s Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service.

“It’s a little feel for the (manufactured home) market, rather than the whole market,” said Loran Hughes, who compiles the statistical data for the association. He said sale of the homes has expanded as an affordable option after the Almeda Fire.

For the rolling quarter, the statistics show there were 54 manufactured home sales, matching the number for the same time last year. The median price showed a decline of 20% from $120,000 to $95,850.

Median prices for new construction in Ashland showed a 48% drop for the rolling quarter compared to 2022. The drop is attributed to a number of smaller, cottage-style homes that have been built and are selling. The median dropped from $753,500 in 2022 to $389,900 this year.

“We didn’t have cottages for sale at this time last year,” said Mullane. The units may be popular with purchasers who don’t want to have shared walls, such as in townhouse developments. They usually run around 740 square feet in floor area.

While sales may have slowed, key-box access activity by MLS Realtors during May remained strong, suggesting buyers are still looking. Statistics for both Jackson and Josephine counties showed there was a 16% decline in the activity to 7,004 for May of this year compared to 8,296 in May 2022. About 25% of the number are from Josephine County.