OTHER VIEWS: What we’re not being told about the cost of EVs
Published 5:00 am Sunday, September 24, 2023
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With the coming of the annual National Electric Drive Week, we are again likely to hear politicians and proponents sing the praises of electric vehicles.
EVs, we will be told, are going to change life because they are cleaner, easier to maintain and fun to drive.
But here’s what we should also be discussing, although we probably won’t: There’s a giant transition on the horizon. Sixty countries, including the entire European Union, are calling for a complete ban on combustion cars starting in 2035. In the U.S., 15 states have now joined in, and more could follow.
Given this looming transition, the following matters also need to be addressed:
— For most Americans, there’s still a cost issue. According to the 2020 U.S. census, the average annual American household income is $67,521 per year. Yet the average income for an owner of a Tesla Model 3, Tesla’s lowest-priced car at a base of more than $40,000, is $133,879 per year — approximately twice that of the average American. Such statistics suggest that the EV is still a product for the wealthy.
EV proponents argue that the cost of the vehicles will keep coming down, much like the costs of personal computers, cellphones and flat-screen TVs once did. But that analogy is demonstrably flawed. EV batteries aren’t electronic products. Their economies of scale are based on chemistry and thermodynamics, not on semiconductor manufacturing.
In truth, the price of lithium-ion batteries will be based on mining operations in countries outside the U.S. Minerals which are critical to battery production are then processed in China. Will mining and processing costs in those countries fall? No one knows.
— Fast-charging is an even bigger challenge than we’ve been told. Everyone knows that public charging infrastructure is inadequate today, but one statistic that’s been largely hidden from view is that 88% of today’s public charging stations support only Level 2 charging. This means that recharging will likely take between four and 10 hours, even at public charging stations.
Public funding, of course, will help municipalities build more charging stations. But how soon? Bear in mind that new fast-charging stations typically cost between $470,000 and $750,000 apiece, according to the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. And we need hundreds of thousands of them.
Some proponents argue that public charging is not a dilemma because 80% of charging takes place at home. Fair enough, but are consumers aware of how long home-charging takes? With a standard 110-volt charging outlet, they’re looking at 40 to 60 hours to recharge an EV battery. For those who are thinking of bypassing these problems by installing a 30-minute fast-charger at home, forget it. Not allowed.
All of this is way too confusing for consumers, largely because there are so many different types of chargers operating at varying power levels. Moreover, there’s no standard battery size. That’s why the public needs more explanation.
— There’s a looming grid problem. If we flipped a switch today and went all-electric, would we have enough electric-generating capacity? Opinions vary, but many experts are doubtful.
But even if we had enough juice, there would still be problems. In Palo Alto, California, where the transition is already gaining momentum, city engineers have learned that EVs will boost peak electrical loads, overloading 95% of residential transformers. Without improvement, those transformers could start overheating, according to a 2020 Palo Alto electrification impact study. Moreover, many of today’s transmission lines might be insufficient.
So if the transition is as big as many believe, we may need millions of newer, bigger transformers and millions of bigger power poles to hold them up. Also, miles and miles of new power lines.
Are we ready for all this? Hard to say, since many of these matters are seldom discussed publicly.
So, yes, EVs are clean and fun to drive. But if we’re making a forced transition to electric cars, we need to know a lot more than that.