Apartments are under construction at Holly and Eighth streets in Medford. One of Medford's fastest growing demographics is people in their 60s migrating to the Rogue Valley looking to downsize and looking for smaller, "senior friendly," high-end apartments and single-story homes.

With Medford’s population expected to surpass 100,000 people by the end of the decade, city officials are looking into strategies to double the city’s housing production goal over the next two years.

Medford City Council and city planning officials Thursday discussed a proposed doubling of the city’s housing production target from 200 to 400 units over the 2023-25 biennium, according to a sweeping council study session agenda touching on topics ranging from housing to homeless aid.

According to a 2023 State of Housing update compiled by Medford Planning Director Matt Brinkley ahead of the study session, a drop in supply of homes for sale has kept home prices in Medford at “historically high levels,” and rental vacancies were below 5% during the first quarter of this year.

Medford’s median home price was $411,285 at the end of last year, up 42% from December 2018. Although home sales have slowed, Medford has seen the “fastest increase in rents since 2013” for two- and three-bedroom rental units.

“This suggests that there is more unmet demand for these types of units, consistent with the finding that millennial households are a significant driver of demand for new rental housing,” Brinkley stated in the report.

Medford’s millennial-aged residents are reaching an “age where they are forming households,” according to Brinkley’s report, increasing demand for rental housing during a time of declining inventory of homes for sale.

Demand for smaller rental units such as studios among younger adults is cooling, according to the report.

One of Medford’s fastest growing demographics is people in their 60s migrating to the Rogue Valley looking to downsize, according to the report. Those residents are looking for smaller, “senior friendly” high-end apartments and single-story homes.

Medford averaged 262 single-family homes built per year between 2018 through 2022, and 86 multifamily housing units over the same time period. Last year, 301 single-family homes and 133 multifamily units were built.

Projections show that those housing production numbers need to be higher. Drawing on population projections compiled by Portland State University, Medford projects that there will be demand for 6,567 dwelling units across all price ranges over the next decade. Of those, 1,769 — or 26.9% — are expected to be renters.

Based on that estimate, Medford will need to produce 480 new homes for homebuyers and 177 new units for renters every year for the next decade, according to the report.

City staff believe a

doubling of the production target is attainable with incentives and tax breaks for developers.

The report lists programs already in place toward the goal, including a system development charge reduction for those building “accessory dwelling units” on their properties as one incentive for densifying a neighborhood, and a property tax exemption program implemented last year for properties with multiple units.