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The schoolwork assignment for Oregon has been 40/40/20. It meant 40% of the high school class of 2025 should get a four-year degree, 40% should get a two-year degree or certificate and 20% should get a high school diploma or equivalent.

There was also a perhaps lesser known second goal. It was that 300,000 adults ages 25 and up were to earn a new postsecondary degree, certificate or similar credential by 2030.

It doesn’t look like Oregon is going to hit that 300,000 goal. It would take about 30,000 students a year getting those credentials. Only about 22,000 a year do it.

Oregon might not catch up. The number of people 25 and older enrolled in community colleges and Oregon’s universities has generally been in decline. It was some 219,00 in 2013-2014. It was 116,000 in 2021-2022.

Some groups in the state are already behind. There is a considerable disparity in Oregon in who has degrees or certificates and who does not. If an Oregonian is Black, Latino, Native American or a Pacific Islander, they are less likely to have a postsecondary credential than if they are white or Asian. If an Oregonian is low income, they are less likely to have the credential. If they live in a rural area, they are less likely to have the credential.

The state has several initiatives to try to hit 300,000. For a start, it does track the progress. That’s where we got all these numbers. And the state has also invested in education and job training. One recent package from the 2022 Legislature was a $200 million investment called Future Ready Oregon.

A report after one year showed that program had some struggles. For instance, Oregon’s tribal communities were identified as places that could use assistance. They were not well represented among grant applicants and awardees. Another issue is that childcare is a continuing barrier to getting additional credentials or even working.

People are right to wonder if another education credential is worth the time and expense or if everyone really needs one. But Oregon should be looking for ways to ensure more people who want to improve themselves get the opportunity.