GUEST COLUMN: The climate ‘game’ we’re forced to play
Published 6:00 am Sunday, April 14, 2024
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Let’s play a game. It’s the climate-change game that every living thing on Earth has no choice but to play, starting … NOW.
The game is called Adapt/Move/Die, and rules are self-explanatory — they’re right there in the name. The object of the game, of course, is not to die. And the winners — well, the winners get to keep playing the game. Forever.
But wait, what about Solve? Isn’t solving the climate crisis an option? Yes, of course, and an absolutely essential one. But even if humanity somehow manages to rapidly phase out fossil fuels, the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere are higher than at any time in hundreds of thousands of years. The effects on climate will continue to unfold for centuries.
Adapt/Move/Die used to have another name: Evolution. But Evolution was played without a time clock, over centuries or millennia. Now, every round of the game of survival is a lightning round, and there are no time-outs.
Let’s get started! Who’s on Team Adapt? You already know them well. Pigeons and rats. Cockroaches and coyotes. Dandelions and thistles. They don’t much mind where they live. No matter how the climate changes, these Adapters will find a way, and a place, to survive.
Under the old Evolution rules, most species belonged to Team Adapt. But the pace of the new game has changed everything.
Just take a look at your local forest. Its trees were once Adapted — attuned to the temperature, the soil, the patterns of rain and snow, the natural pests. But now, our forests are full of dying trees.
For many plants facing rapid climate change, their choices are Move or Die. It’s an unanswered and existential question whether the plants that support the biosphere can Move fast enough.
And what of people? Thanks to our huge numbers and our great cleverness, no species on Earth will show such complicated game play. Adapt will be the preferred strategy in the global North, where climate extremes may (repeat, may) be less severe, and where great economic resources can be brought to bear in the name of Adaptation.
Here, we hope, coastal cities can be protected behind seawalls, infrastructure can be strengthened, and emergency assistance can be provided for victims of “natural” disasters.
Tragically, none of this will be available for huge numbers of people. The World Health Organization predicts that climate change will cause an estimated 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050 from disease, starvation, and heat stress.
If true, Team Die will claim 5 million members over that 20-year span. Many of those deaths will come from the poorest countries, where people lack even the resources to join the last remaining team: Team Move.
“Move” will be the most disruptive play in the game. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that 1.2 billion people, or over 10% of the world’s population, could be displaced by climate-related events like floods, storms, and wildfires by 2050.
When playing “Move” involves crossing national borders, it often has another name: illegal immigration. From the United States to Europe to Australia, illegal immigration is already considered to be a crisis, and has been a key factor in the rise of right-wing political parties. Given the harsh response to the existing level of illegal immigration, it is frightening to imagine what the future flood of climate refugees could face.
There is only one way to win the game of Adapt/Move/Die. That is to recognize that we all share this critically damaged planet. To succeed, Adaptation will require cooperation. To survive, those who must Move will require help and compassion.
We can play the game together and win the right to keep playing — that is, to live. Or we can enlist in Team Die by choosing isolation and conflict.
Anyone want to roll the dice?