It’s well-known that residents of Southern Oregon have been experiencing elevated wildfire risk over recent years. When we are confronted by events we don’t like, it’s tempting for us to try to find someone to blame.

“The government” is often the nameless, faceless entity that fills the blame bill. However, in the case of addressing our wildfire risk, blaming the government is neither reasonable nor helpful.

In order to understand the causes for wildfires risk, we need to appreciate the interplay of several factors:

• The unusual Mediterranean climate in which we live, with wet winters and dry summers, occurs in only a few locations across the globe. Where it occurs, the soil and vegetation normally dry out each summer and fall. The result is that fires, once initiated, can easily spread. This climatic pattern has existed since the Mesozoic era, over 60 million years ago. As a result, the forests that developed here following the most recent ice age are likely to experience fire frequently and have become both fire adapted and fire dependent. A major cause for our wildfire experience is where we live; this we cannot change.

• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a climatic cycle that, in Southern Oregon, results in our cycling from several years of warm dry conditions followed by several years of cooler, moister conditions. Unsurprisingly, the warmer, drier conditions elevate wildfire risk. Again, a cause for our wildfire experience is where we live; still difficult to change.

• Prior to the last century, because of the climate discussed above and partly because of the use of fire by indigenous peoples, our forests burned often. When European settlers arrived, and particularly during the last century, suppression became the primary management mode for dealing with fires. The result of this suppression was the encroachment into our fire adapted forests of fire intolerant species that previously were eliminated by the fires. As a result, the tree density in our forests, particularly the more fire prone dry forests, increased. This increased the woody fuel available in our forests. The management practice known as fuel reduction, one of the tactics for generating defensible space around homes, is a response to this decades-long trend of fire suppression increasing tree density. Clearly, we can adjust our forest management practices to address this trend.

• For whatever reason we like to attribute it, the climate is changing, and has been doing so for decades. Climate scientists have determined that human combustion of fossil fuels and our transforming forested landscapes into agriculture are driving global warming and causing this climate change. These human behaviors result in an increasing concentration in our atmosphere of climate pollution in the form of so-called greenhouse gases. These gases, notably carbon dioxide, but also methane and oxides of nitrogen, trap heat and promote the warming that further stimulates the late summer/fall spread of wildfires beyond that induced by the Mediterranean climate. If one rejects the consensus of climate scientists, this climate change is not something we can address. However, if the climate science consensus is correct, we can adjust those human behaviors that result in global warming; we can divert the current trend that increases fire risk.

• Some Southern Oregonians like to blame the Northwest Forest Plan that reduced logging in our forests for the megafire risk. However, unlike the climate patterns discussed above, the evidence suggests that this is not a major contributor. The point is, there are some factors enhancing wildfire risk over which we have no control while there are other factors that we can address. It seems rational that we tackle those we can address. As explained during wildfire hazard map meetings earlier this year, the purpose of the effort to identify where wildfires are most likely to occur. As I understand it, the goal is then to identify which landowners are at higher versus lower risk, and provide resources to assist high risk Oregonians to improve their preparedness for that risk.