In the name of the fight against climate change, California and other states are on the road to 100% net-zero-emission cars and trucks — primarily electric vehicles.

But there’s a far more effective way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, particularly for the long-haul trucking industry, according to the American Trucking Research Institute: replace petroleum diesel fuel with a fossil fuel-free version made from materials such as soybean oil, crop residue and used cooking oil.

This renewable diesel can reduce carbon dioxide more than battery electric trucks at a far lower cost, according to a new ATRI report.

The nonpartisan think tank found:

• Battery electric trucks produce more lifecycle carbon dioxide than an internal combustion engine truck using renewable diesel.

• Battery-powered trucks have a shorter range and less cargo capacity, and more battery-powered trucks would be needed to carry the same amount of cargo as renewable diesel trucks.

• Battery-powered trucks and charging infrastructure are far more expensive than diesel truck costs.

Larger reductions

The transportation sector is responsible for nearly 29% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Within that sector, medium- and heavy-duty trucks are responsible for 23% of emissions, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

ATRI’s research found switching from a long-haul diesel truck to a comparable battery-powered truck would decrease life-cycle carbon dioxide by 30%.

However, using renewable diesel in a truck would reduce life-cycle carbon dioxide emissions even more — by 67.3%.

“I found it quite compelling that something called renewable diesel decreased carbon dioxide by nearly 70% compared to petroleum diesel,” said Jeffrey Short, ATRI vice president and lead author of the report.

In addition, renewable diesel did not require any changes to the vehicle. It’s chemically identical to petroleum diesel and can be used in any diesel vehicle. Trucking companies wouldn’t have to buy new trucks, he said.

A new diesel truck costs about $150,000. A comparable electric truck — that can’t necessarily get the same mileage — costs about $400,000.

“That is a big difference,” he said.

“Some companies out there can take that cost head-on, but it’s not going to be comfortable. (For) others, it’s not even an option; they will never be able to operate with those kind of expenses,” he said.

Operational capabilities

ATRI also considered the distance a battery-powered long-haul truck can travel between charging and the cargo weight it could carry — both key metrics.

Current electric trucks have a range of 150 to 250 miles before the battery must be recharged. In addition, battery degradation reduces range. That degradation comes with age, more charging cycles and extreme temperatures.

The limited range is even more of a problem because charging stations for long-haul trucks are not currently available. Even if charging were available, the time it takes to charge a truck battery would cut into operational efficiencies.

“Alternately, a (truck using renewable diesel) is able to achieve a range of 1,000 miles or more before refueling is necessary, which is far greater than the (battery-powered truck) 150- to 250-mile range,” the analysts said in their report.

Likewise, the diesel truck’s range does not decrease with use, while battery capacity degrades with use, the analysts said.

Bigger fleet

Another consequence of shifting to a battery-powered truck fleet is the need for more trucks to move the same amount of freight. That’s because there are weight limits on the National Highway System, and electric trucks are considerably heavier than their diesel counterparts due to battery weight.

One Class 8 battery-powered truck in the marketplace today weighs 4,000 pounds more than its diesel counterpart and has a range of 230 miles per charge.

ATRI modeled a battery-powered Class 8 sleeper cab truck that could operate at trip ranges comparable to diesel trucks — 500 miles or more between charges. It weighed 13,800 pounds more than its diesel counterpart.

“The added weight, whether it’s 4,000 pounds or 13,800 pounds, will impact the amount of revenue weight a (battery powered) truck can haul,” the analysts found.

“The conundrum is that the heavier the truck battery, the longer and farther the truck can drive; but with larger batteries, the truck can carry less revenue-generating cargo,” they said.

The researchers found it would take 1,343 battery-powered trucks — with their additional lifecycle emissions — to carry the same amount of cargo as 1,000 diesel trucks.

Financial comparisons

ATRI also explored the costs of shifting to renewable diesel as an alternative to battery-powered trucks.

One major benefit of using renewable diesel to decrease carbon dioxide emissions is it is a “drop-in” fuel, meaning trucks can run on it without any modifications, the analysts found.

“This is especially important for smaller carriers and owner-operators that depend heavily on sourcing equipment from the used truck market,” they said.

Operating costs

The costs of insurance, road charges, maintenance, labor and fuel are also higher for electric trucks. In 2022, the International Council on Clean Transportation found the total operating cost of battery-powered trucks is 13% to 26% higher than diesel trucks.

For diesel trucks, there is also evidence that maintenance costs for particulate filters and other components are far lower with renewable diesel compared to petroleum diesel.

The costs of petroleum and renewable diesel and electricity are all influenced by markets, making it difficult to predict prices, according to the analysts. But it is possible to analyze the factors that go into pricing, they said.

Examining those factors over time, they found average electricity prices in the continental U.S. range from 8.24 cents to 22.33 cents per kilowatt-hour.

Diesel fuel could range from $3.91 to $5.35 per gallon.

Short circuit

Electricity prices can also vary by time and day — adding further uncertainty to costs. Prices may also include demand charges to cover the cost of extending power lines.

“The price of electricity will continue to be driven by the need to expand and update infrastructure. Currently, growing demand from data centers and industrial customers is having a significant impact on costs and straining the electricity infrastructure,” the analysts said.

They estimated the cost of new infrastructure to supply electricity to support a battery-powered truck fleet would be nearly $1 trillion.

Feedstock supply

As for renewable diesel, it is clear that feedstock prices will be key to determining prices. In theory, the additional demand for agricultural commodities could maintain or increase prices.

The analysts noted production of commodities such as soybeans has become more efficient. Soybean yields have increased more than 38% per acre over the past 25 years.

“I really like the fact that renewable diesel is a product that can be manufactured, grown in the United States. We have the resources to grow the raw materials,” ATRI’s Short said.

What’s also great about renewable diesel is that growing plants, such as soybeans, are taking carbon dioxide out of the air. While processing and using renewable diesel in a truck puts carbon dioxide back into the air, it’s more of a cycle, he said.

The supply of feedstocks such as agricultural residue and used cooking oil is not likely to change each year, the analysts said.

“That said, ultimately the diversity and availability of feedstocks bodes well for (renewable diesel) pricing and stability. As more feedstock types are introduced through new processes, and as waste stream collection systems are developed, more options will be available…,” the analysts said.

Government subsidies and tax credits currently play a role in the retail price of renewable diesel and are essential in the short term to help it meet diesel price parity.

But those subsidies are far more cost effective than shifting to battery-powered trucks, the analysts said.

Decarbonization

ATRI research has found that electricity generation would have to increase 40% to power the entire battery-powered trucking fleet. Additionally, new transmission and distribution lines and substations would be needed to carry that electricity to truck charging stations scattered across the nation.

The cost of that infrastructure was estimated at between $600 billion and $1 trillion.

In this new research, analysts compared the costs and lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions of a combination battery-powered and diesel long-haul fleet and a combination renewable diesel and petroleum diesel long-haul fleet.

The additional vehicle cost for converting 2 million of the 3.25 million fleet of diesel trucks to battery-powered trucks over 15 years totals nearly $600 billion. That’s assuming all of the battery-powered trucks sold in the early years would remain in the fleet — although it is certain they would reach the end of their usable life well before 15 years.

Same results

The lifetime carbon dioxide emissions from that combination of diesel and battery-powered fleet would decrease emissions 22.6% from the baseline population of 100% petroleum diesel trucks.

That same carbon dioxide reduction could be obtained by converting 921,398 petroleum diesel trucks to renewable diesel trucks and would only take six years.

In addition, transitioning to renewable diesel would not incur additional vehicle costs, and the truck and fuel distribution system would remain the same.

In addition to the nearly $600 billion in vehicle costs to transition part of the fleet to battery power, infrastructure needed for those trucks would cost about another $600 billion — totaling nearly $1.2 trillion.

Transitioning part of the fleet to renewable diesel trucks does have costs, including government subsidies and facility costs. The research found those costs would be $203.72 billion over 15 years — about 83% less than the $1.2 trillion it would cost to convert part of the fleet to battery-powered trucks.

Energy dependence

“Finally, it goes without saying that renewable diesel production may have significant benefits in rural America and diminish the industry’s exposure to fluctuating global oil markets,” the analysts said.

The battery-powered truck scenario is a “best case” considering there are no long-haul electric trucks on the market today and the infrastructure to support them is costly with no clear path to cover those costs.

“Additionally, it will take a tremendous amount of time to plan, permit and build that infrastructure. In the (electric truck) scenario — while electric utilities and others struggle to meet infrastructure needs — the opportunity to meaningfully decrease carbon dioxide emissions in the industry through (renewable diesel) could be missed,” the analysts said.

The biggest emissions from battery-powered trucks come from mining the materials — such as lithium and cobalt, sourced from other countries — for the batteries and generating electricity, mostly from fossil fuel sources and natural gas in particular.

Taking crude oil out of the ground to produce petroleum diesel puts carbon dioxide in the air and burning it in a truck puts more in the air — that isn’t a cycle, he said.

“It’s a much better solution from a carbon dioxide perspective than a battery electric vehicle,” he said.

Available supply

The folks at the North American Council for Freight Efficiency are well versed in available and new technologies for the trucking fleet.

“We understand the challenge the industry is having,” said Dave Schaller, NACFE’s director of industry engagement.

“We strongly feel there are clear plays for renewable natural gas and renewable diesel,” he said.

Those fuels are a good alternative for people who don’t want to or can’t do battery electric or hydrogen, he said.

But in both cases, availability is somewhat of a drawback right now, he said.

Renewable diesel, specifically, is difficult to find east of the Rockies. The majority of it is consumed in California, where state policy offers economic incentives for its use, he said.

Flexibility

“Renewable diesel is beautiful in the fact that it can be used in today’s trucks immediately,” he said.

And it’s gentler on the exhaust after treatment — a diesel particulate filter to achieve emissions reductions — because it burns cleaner than petroleum diesel, he said.

Renewable natural gas — which is primarily sourced from the anaerobic digestion of manure, food, municipal and solid waste — can also be used in the current trucking fleet.

“Renewable natural gas can have an actual negative carbon intensity. It’s a win-win situation for the environment,” he said.

And trucking companies don’t have to convert the whole fleet to reach the carbon neutral number they’re after.

Renewable natural gas and renewable diesel bring up an interesting situation because fleets can go back and forth between those fuels and petroleum diesel on an as-needed basis.

A fleet with a certain target date for all zero-emissions trucks can convert over time instead of overhauling the whole fleet at once.

Multiple options

Sometime in the future, all trucks will be zero emissions or near-zero emissions. In the meantime, there are a lot of renewable fuels that can reduce emissions, he said.

That’s good for the environment but results in less scaling up of any particular practice or technology, which includes such things as infrastructure, he said.

“Renewable fuels are a good option if you have the availability and they fit your duty cycle. They might not be the final fuel you’re using,” he said.

He points out California’s multi-million-dollar investment in renewable natural gas. Now the state has abandoned that strategy and turned to battery-electric vehicles.

Renewable diesel is easy to use, if available. It costs more but zero training is needed for mechanics and drivers — except for training drivers to find it, he said.

If the trucking industry could convert to renewable diesel, that could be great, he said, but it’s not available everywhere and is more expensive than petroleum diesel.

“If everyone could get it and save costs, great, let’s all do it. But it’s not zero emissions; it’s better, but it’s not zero,” he said.

Growing capacity

Supply is the biggest barrier right now to switching to renewable diesel, but U.S. and global capacity to produce it is growing, ATRI’s Short said.

Renewable diesel production is projected to double from last year by the end of this decade or earlier, bringing it up to 7 billion to 8 billion gallons.

“I think that’s entirely possible,” he said.

Still, it’s just 20% of the 40 billion gallons of diesel the U.S. trucking industry is consumes.

Critics question if there’s enough feedstocks, at least in the near term, to fulfill the needs of refiners in order to produce enough renewable diesel for the trucking industry and others.

“Certainly I think agriculture can … at least position itself to better meet the demand going forward,” he said.

One solution?

“I don’t think we need one solution for the carbon problem in this world. This will definitely help long-haul trucking decrease their carbon footprint,” ATRI’s Short said.

Putting long-haul trucking, heavy duty and semi-tractor trailer trucking on the electricity grid is difficult, he said.

“So this could be a solution for that sector. It seems like a no-brainer to … at least work toward getting as much renewable diesel on the market as possible for folks traveling long haul,” he said.

California is the big spot for availability, but folks all across the country would like it to be available, and other states are coming online with their own concepts for getting more into their state.

“Because at the end of the day … it helps work toward climate goals,” he said.

Other technologies

There are also other exciting new technologies to consider, such as Cummings’ X15 heavy-duty, fuel-agnostic engine, capable of using petroleum diesel, biodiesel blends or renewable diesel.

Another is the Optimus Technologies system that would use petroleum diesel from one fuel tank to start and shut down the engine and 100% biodiesel from another fuel tank to operate.

— Dave Schaller, director of industry engagement

for the North American Council for Freight Efficiency